Causal Loop Based Change Propagation and Risk Assessment

The implications of initiating a new project or making changes on an already existing system can potentially have substantial influence on the system itself, other conflicting systems, or more non-technology oriented aspects. This paper addresses how systemigrams and causal loop diagrams (CLD) can be used for communicating holistic and common system models to different segments of an organization. These models have been found useful in order to make sure all the involved parts have the same understanding of the project as well as following how the initiation of a new project will propagate in respect of four aspects: technology, organization, business, and finance. It is further described how the mapped propagation can be used as a basis for risk assessment where the risk is defined as the product of impact and probability. The method described in this paper provides a new and more lucid approach of risk assessment based on what the project want to achieve.